Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NFL. Show all posts

Monday, November 22, 2010

Quick Column: NFL Thinking

I've worked the weekend and didn't see much of Sunday's football action but I still have some thoughts about the results.

The difference a year makes, huh?

At the end of last year the Vikings were one running play (rather than one pass) from getting to the Super Bowl.

One year ago, Brett Favre was having the "best" season of his career and Minnesota fans were praising him like he was a career Viking and Viking HOF'er. People were ultimately loving Brett Favre's stats; 33 TD's vs. 7 INT's. They loved 4,202 passing yards and the best passer rating in his career, 107.2. They happened to lose in the NFC Championship game with a chance to win it and wanted Brett Favre back.

I don't blame fans, Viking fans, NFL fans, friends or family at all for that. The Vikings had it going on last season. The got numerous bounces within games leading them to win games.

However, I had a different opinion. I do love Brett Favre and what he did for the Packers all of those years. Though I have seen him throw so many interceptions, have my childhood best friend Will, make so much fun of me because my favorite player did that, that I knew it was a one year wonder.

Favre's TD % is one half the number than it was last year and his INT % is five times higher than last year. His 10 TD's and 17 INT's are 11 TD's fewer and 14 INT's more than at the same point last season.

CHILDRESS FIRED! As I sit here at 11:15am, listening to KFAN and watching the old Twitter feed, Childress is gone and Leslie Frazier is in.

Again, what a year makes for Brad Childress too. A year ago his job was safe and Brett Favre kept covering him for, what I believe, his mediocrity as an NFL head coach. In his four seasons as head coach he's gone from 6-10 to 8-8 to 10-6 and then 12-4 last year before deteriorating so much this season, 3-7 before being fired today. The lifespan of a coach; stop winning and you stop coaching.

Here's a Tweet from Vikings write on ESPN1500.com Tom Pelissero.
Brad Childress' firing comes 368 days after signed him to a contract extension. What a difference a year makes.

But it's interesting what changes in a year. Last season the Packers were killed by the Vikings. This season the Packers took it to the Vikings, twice.

Last season the Cardinals beat the Packers in the playoffs with Kurt Warner and this season they are no where to be found.

Last season the Bucs were no where to be found and were one of the worst teams in the NFL. This season they are 7-3 and in the strong NFC South.

Last season the Jets were on the brink of not making the playoffs and were borderline average. But they got on a roll and played well in the playoffs. This season, it seems, they are capitalizing on every single break, just as the Vikings did last season.

What a difference a year makes.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

NFL Power Rankings

To the teams in question from Week 1.

As it stands at the halfway point of the NFL season.

1. New England Patriots.
They still have a solid preparer in Bill Belichick. They have Tom Brady clicking again. The passing game is very solid spreading it around to Wes Welker, Randy Moss and others. The running game is satisfactory but they pass first. They have the #2 ranked D in terms of points allowed (PA's ol' "bend but don't break excuse."). Also, they have the 7th ranked D in terms of yards allowed a game.

2. Minnesota Vikings
They're always liable to lose a game with uber-conservative play caller Brad Childress at the helm. Statistically, they're not very good-anywhere! Shocking, I know. The Packers are ranked in front of right next to the Vikings in numerous categories that I looked at.

However, they've gotten spectacular play from Packers legendary quarterback Brett Favre. With the current stats this team has and someone other than Favre at QB this team would be 5-3 at the halfway point. Favre and the Vikes lead the league in team passing/passer rating. However, with their beast Adrian Peterson running the ball they're only 12th in the league in rushing yards per game. Not great, considering AP's goal was to surpass 2,000 yards rushing this year! Haha, that's where I will always stress realistic and maybe slightly more conservative goals for the rest of my life. Though he is still on pace for 1,568 yards and a great year it's been proven he can be slowed or neutralized as a result of two Packer games. In fact, this stud has only rushed for 100 yards twice this year.

The Vikings are relying too much on Brett Favre. At the half way point, his 106 passer rating will only digress, if not a ton, slightly. Meaning, that will result in L's in the standings.

What happened to the Vikings defense? Overall: 17th in yards allowed. 18th in yards allowed per game. 16th in points allowed and tied for 17th in points allowed per game. None of those stats are very impressive. They're 9th in 3rd down percentage allowing a first down 35% of the time. They're only +5 in the turnover ratio.

What say you about these facts?

Might I say the Vikings will slip a bit this second half of the year. Their schedule isn't considerably tough however.

Was it the Vikings plan to throw considerably more with Favre in the first half of the year and rely on a "fresh" Adrian Peterson to carry them down the stretch?

3. Green Bay Packers
Head coach is decent with Mike McCarthy. He needs to step up his game though. Offensively they're fine. Rodgers gets the ball to his guys. I would like a better running game, though they average more rushing yards per game than the Vikings. I would like Rodgers to stop taking so many sacks! They have a sieve for an offensive line. It does nothing to stop the likes of Antwan Odom or Jared Allen.
Their defense is having some troubles adjusting to the 3-4 defense. I would have liked to keep the 4-3 to have Aaron Kampman more effective. However, they're adjusting. Their secondary thinks they're better than they are. Harris and Woodson might be good but Bigbie and Collins aren't great. (Though Collins is fast and tracked down Percy Harvin on a kick return in the second game versus the Vikings)
Clearly the Packers problems don't come from production or stats. They're good. They just have a horrible offensive line and their defense isn't meshing into the new system as well as they could. Also, it might result in some coaching mistakes.

This was going to be very short. But I kept writing.

Mark it down though. Count on a couple brutal losses for the Vikings though. Maybe even in the post season.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

My Thoughts: How It Really Happened Vikings vs. Steelers


(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

Let's start with a preface.

Last night Katy and I were at Curt and Megan's reception and Nick texts me asking what we were doing. The result was a phone call and a set of Sunday afternoon plans to enjoy chips and cheese and salsa, a veggie platter and some Swedish fish and snickers and an afternoon in front of the old Samsung to watch the highly anticipated Vikings vs. Steelers contest.

We watched all afternoon and enjoyed the food and relaxing with friends. It appeared that the game didn't get real exciting until late but it blew up with action.

I ended up listening to KFAN and their post game shows and heard some crazy thoughts on what happened during the game from callers and hosts. So, here it goes.

During the first quarter the Steelers held a 3-0 lead. Like I said, the action didn't blow up until late.

The second quarter consisted of a five plus minute Viking drive that put them ahead 7-3 on an Adrian Peterson TD, his eighth of the year. Late in the second quarter the Steelers took it right down the field and scored in 1:15, with big passing plays of 22 yards and 40 yards, both to the rookie Mike Wallace. Roethlesberger to Wallace put the Steelers up 10-7 leaving the Vikings twenty-four seconds to put the pigskin in play.

Here is where fans had some trouble in hindsight. Kneeling down with :24 left on the clock.

A few were very frustrated and thought that having twenty-four seconds left in the first half was a great chance to march down the field and get a field goal or a touchdown.

As a fan and a former video gamer aspiring coach, yeah, I absolutely would have liked to see and would have called at least two plays to get into a position to score the football. However, Favre and Childress along with Darrell Bevell must have put their noggins together and decided to kneel down and go into the half down jut 10-7. Again, I thought it was odd that they decided to do that but you can't even come close to assuming they would have scored. That's just a coaching being content for some unknown reason.

Fault: Childress.

Here came the third quarter. The Steelers took it right down the field to begin the second half, using the first 3:55 of time to put it in through the uprights with a field goal by Jeff Reed. 13-7, Pittsburgh with the lead.

In the next 6:21, the Vikings would respond with a field goal of their own, on 13 plays going for 64 yards. 13-10 Pittsburgh still led.

The fourth quarter is when everything ensued. And I mean everything.

The Steelers were driving on their possession from the end of the third to the fourth quarter. However, Rashard Mendenhall took the handoff made a couple of moves and was within sight of the goal line. However, one of his teammates was kneeling down on the ground blocking a Viking defensive lineman. Mendenhall, though at the five yard line, thought it would be fun to go airborne like it was the goal line and add a couple extra yards to the carry. However, the young man's idea backfired on him. He was hit hard in the air, fumbled, and the Vikings recovered.

Vikings Fans: Let's not forget, had the youngster not made the boneheaded play, it would have been 16-10 or 20-10, at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Easily.

Fault: Vikings benefited on the fumble but could have easily given up 3/7 points.

At this point the Vikings took the football back and drove pretty well right down to Steelers territory. This is when more "controversy" happens. Now the Vikings were right down in Pittsburgh territory and tight end Jeff Dugan was called with tripping or leg whipping (both penalties) a defensive player. The television crew (Somebody, Daryl Johnston, Tony Siragusa) thought it was a weak call but didn't sound too emphatic. The KFAN crew (Cory Cove and Mike Morris) thought it was an offense and that it was a penalty.

Fault: Jeff Dugan. You committed a penalty. Either way it went it wasn't a big deal, but it was called so you got caught.

However, three plays later Favre was sacked, fumbled the football and James Farrior of the Steelers took it 77 yards to the house, putting the Steelers up 20-10. (Could have been 27-10 or 23-10 with that Mendenhall fumble snafu, let's not forget that)

Fault: Vikings OLine. You've got to protect your 40 year old quarterback who has made this team as formidable as it is right now. With Jackson or Rosenfels I say the Vikings are 4-2 or 3-3 right now.

More craziness ensues, kicker Jeff Reed boots the following kick to Vikings rookie receiver and special teamer Percy Harvin takes it quickly back 88 yards for a score.

Fault: Nah. Credit. Percy Harvin made it happen. (Just think about this. NFL teams typically return 3-4 punts/kicks back for touchdowns a year. It's not a let's just execute play. Just think if it hadn't happened. It wouldn't be 20-17 at that point. It'd be 20-10 still.)



(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
So, the Vikings defense forces a Steeler punt and the Vikings go to work from their own 26 yard line looking for at least a field goal to tie the score up and force overtime. Not to make the game boring the Vikings drive down to Steeler territory again.

And in one of the plays of the game that portrays football at its adrenaline contact filled peak, Adrian Peterson catches a pass from Favre, turns and drills defensive back William Gay, before disposing of him and running forward more. It was a beautiful play and Peterson must have been gassed.



(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
So, Chester Taylor comes in to spell Peterson for a play or two (turns out just two). In that mix, Chester catches one for seven yards. What happens next Vikings fans question for some unknown reason.

Callers on KFAN had perfect 20/20 vision hindsight. What is the best player in the NFL doing on the bench in a critical end of game possession?

Fault: Nobody. Hhmm, AP just drills a DB and gains 29 yards on a huge play filling his veins with adrenaline and he's got to stay in the game? Players come in and out on their own all the time and Peterson needed a breather. Not a big deal, yet Vikings fans/callers yell and scream and rant, how could our best player not be in the line up?

How about this? He got tired. I bet if you made that hit you wouldn't have kept running for a bigger gain! You may have drilled William Gay but you would have fallen down on your face after.

Ok, so Peterson is out and Chester Taylor is in. He's a third down back for the Vikings and he's a better third down back for the Vikings is than Adrian Peterson is. To be a good third down back you've got to be a very versatile, intelligent player. You've got to be a threat to both run and catch, but the emphasis is on catch. You've also have to be smart enough to pick up the blitz and tough enough to get in the way of it.

So Chester Taylor was in, Peterson happened to be on the bench. Favre throws his second consecutive dump off to Taylor. However, something happens with this throw as with many of this other INT's. It's off the fingertips, bounces high in the air, giving plenty of time for the defense to find it in the air and pick it off.

This Favre pass was high. No doubt about it. Chester's hands went up towards his face, the ball glanced off of his fingertips and because it was high to begin with and popped up in the air allowing Fox to pick it off and run the distance to for the touchdown.

Steelers lead 27-17 with the point after touchdown. 1:00 to play after the kick return by the Vikings.

Fans were upset with the play calling and the fact Peterson wasn't out there. Childress was trying to actually win the game by being aggressive and scoring a touchdown! (Refer back to his kneel down with :24 left in the first half please. Too conservative.) Vikings callers wanted them to run it there and get the field goal. Now, isn't that just being like Childress? Too conservative? And they'd be calling after the game yelling if he had played for the tie, got it but lost in overtime.

Fault: Uh, 60-40 Favre and Taylor. Put it this way, if Favre plunks that ball in Chester's gut, does that ball pop up in the air and allow the defense to pick it? I think not. It either hits him in the gut and he catches it, hits him in the gut and he catches it before dropping it because he got drilled in the back or it hits him in the gut and he drops it. Favre threw it high and he paid the consequences for that.


(AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)


(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
I actually laughed when it happened. I immediately thought of how Vikings fans now feel the same way I did on all of the interceptions that Favre threw that were partially his fault but not completely.

One other point. A couple weeks ago, listening to KFAN, someone, brought the bend do not break defensive method to the table. The Rams out gained the Vikings 400 to 377 but someone else was defending "well we bent but didn't break." Well, the Rams were also penalized more than the Vikings and the Rams also won the time of possession battle. Hhmm, seems to me that Jared Allen returned a fumble for a TD in that game too-another similarity between these two games. But the "bend don't break" argument won out versus this Ram team that did some good things against this Vikings team. (Talk of garbage time is another argument and hasn't been thought through-don't bring it to the table :)

So, another set of callers and hosts said that this Vikings team dominated the Steelers and that the Steelers were "lucky" to get the win. Are you kidding me? Please refer to the Rams game. Also, did you see how the Ravens missed a game winning kick indoors from a manageable distance? If he made that, and probably should have, the Vikings would be 5-2.

Also, did anyone see that amazing Favre to Greg Lewis throw and catch to defeat the 49ers on the last play of the game? I think the Vikings were extremely lucky to get out of there with a win. They could be 4-3, could they not be!?

It might not be wise to say "the Steelers got lucky and we should have won" argument. If you do then you would have won the Pittsburgh game but lost the 49ers game as well as the Ravens game, would you not have?

So yes, the Vikings might have dominated statistically but ultimately they did not win and should not have won, judging by the Steelers defense scoring twice and fully employing the Vikings "bend but don't break" defensive style.

Take aways from the game:

Childress is still too conservative. Kneel down with :24 left in the first half? Have fun, pretend you play a game and give it a shot or two! You really should, no reason not to.

The Vikings could have lost by more. (See Mendenhall fumble)

O line did not protect Favre well enough.

Harvin came up big with his kick return.

Peterson fatigued after a big play. Yeah, it happens. People get tired and it's very common in football to substitute.

Favre/Taylor should take blame for their misconnection. Enough said, Favre's pass was high and Chester didn't keep his paws on it.

The outcome was closer than the score.

I don't care if you dominate statistically. You can not and will not win a game if you allow two defensive touchdowns. Please refer back to when Sharper/kick/punt return went against the Giants in the Meadowlands a few years ago. I recall a Sharper INT return, a Mewelde Moore punt return for a TD and a Koren Robinson TD for a score. Vikes won that game 24-21. Sheesh, how bad were the Vikes if they got 3 unusual TD's and only win by 3? Ha.

Don't believe me? I was there. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/recap?gameId=251113019

Monday, August 31, 2009

JDischinger's Power Rankings

Eric,

Here are my power rankings.

1. Patriots 11-5
Bill Belichick and Tom Brady together again. Also, Randy Moss along with some other guys who want a ring; Joey Galloway and Laurence Maroney. Coaching is top notch here, no one messes with Coach Belichick's game preparation. They won with so and so before and they'll win with the same team concept again this year. Also, 11 wins with out Brady is also very impressive.

2. Vikings 11-5
Defense is the key to this vehicle. Though, the keys may be evening up with Adrian Peterson playing well again, splitting a little bit of time with Chester Taylor. If they improve their special teams, which were terrible last year, they will improve as a team by a half click. Brett Favre brings plenty of experience though they'll have to keep him very healthy and protected. It'll be fun to watch Peterson, Harvin, Allen and Winfield.

3. Packers 10-6

Rodgers is back and will have much better stats than Favre. Greg Jennings and the reciever core will be great to watch. Watch out for Ryan Grant but let's hold our breath on the offensive line. Hopefully the transition of the defense from the 4-3 to the 3-4 is smooth. BJ Raji looks to be a monster in the middle, hopefully Aaron Kampman can capitalize and the linebackers can make plays and the secondary is solid. They were a sieve last season so let's hope Woodson, Harris and the guys back there play well.